Between Invasion & Diplomacy: Trump’s Options With Venezuela

At a press conference on November 17, US President Donald Trump stated that he does not rule out using his armed forces in Venezuela. This military buildup has involved the Pentagon deploying thousands of soldiers to the Caribbean Sea and to countries collaborating with Washington in the so-called Southern Spear military operation. Most recently, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the United States, arrived in the Caribbean to, according to the Pentagon, “combat transnational threats”.

The Trump administration claims that a large amount of the drugs entering the United States comes from Venezuela, whose government is allegedly part of a criminal structure called the “Cartel of the Suns”.

Caracas has flatly denied these accusations and claimed that they are part of a justification to overthrow the Venezuelan government (which controls the world’s largest oil reserves) and thus force a change of direction in the country that is aligned with Washington’s economic and geopolitical interests.

Washington insists on its accusations

On November 16, the US State Department announced that it will designate the Cartel of the Suns (Cartel de los Soles) a foreign terrorist organization. Defense Secretary Marco Rubio stated: “The Cartel of the Suns, along with other designated foreign terrorist organizations, including the Aragua Train and the Sinaloa Cartel, are responsible for terrorist violence throughout the hemisphere, as well as drug trafficking to the United States and Europe.”

According to US authorities, this designation gives the US military carte blanche to attack the assets and infrastructure of what they consider to be part of the Cartel de los Soles, despite the fact that a large number of international law experts argue that this is not sufficient to legally justify an attack outside its borders.

Despite these warnings, the Trump administration has already launched attacks on small boats in the Caribbean Sea that, according to Washington, were carrying drugs to the United States, although no reliable evidence has yet been presented to prove this. Dozens of deaths have been reported so far.

The big question arising from the recent military and administrative maneuvers by the United States is whether Washington will dare to attack Venezuelan territory on the grounds that it is an attack to destroy a terrorist organization. For the moment, Trump has moved forward with these measures, although he has been cautious in stating that the attack will take place.

Trump says he will speak with Maduro soon

While the Trump administration increases pressure on Venezuela, even authorizing covert actions in the Caribbean country according to the New York Times, it also claims that there may be an open channel of communication with Caracas.

This was seemingly confirmed at the November 17 press conference, when, in response to questions from reporters about possible communication with Maduro, Trump said, “At some point, I will talk to him.”

Maduro’s response

In response to these statements, the Venezuelan president reacted by saying that the conversation should take place: “Only through diplomacy can differences be resolved … Anyone who wants to talk to Venezuela will talk face to face, but the Venezuelan people cannot be allowed to be massacred.”

Maduro warned that one of the consequences of a possible military invasion of Venezuela would be the loss of legitimacy of the Trump administration: “A war against Venezuela would be the political end of his leadership and his name. [Some people are trying to push Trump to] make the most serious mistake of his entire life.” He also said that public opinion in the United States is increasingly rejecting a possible military intervention in South America.

For now, Washington wants to maintain all options available when negotiating with Maduro’s government, whether through military or diplomatic means. Thus, Trump is deploying his military and intelligence assets in South America while keeping the lines of communication open with Maduro. For its part, the Venezuelan government is betting on diplomacy while preparing for a possible military invasion that would seek to end more than 25 years of Chavista rule, although such an operation could have unforeseen effects in the region, even for Washington.

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch