Assam: Trust Deficit Looms Amid SIR, NRC, Zubeen Death Probe

Kolkata: Assam in the North-East has been proving to be a strong base for the Bharatiya Jantata Party (BJP) and its allies since the 2016 Assembly elections. The nine-year period since 2016 has seen BJP and its partners register impressive and continuous electoral victories. For the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma of BJP, the Lok Sabha election held in April 2024 and the panchayat elections conducted in May this year proved politically rewarding. The Lok Sabha saw them improve their tally to 11 seats out of 14 from nine earlier. The NDA also recorded a massive victory in the zilla parishad and ‘anchalik’ panchayat seats.

In the last week of September, however, BJP has had to reckon with a disruption as it lost the Bodoland Territorial Council election to the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) headed by former extremist Hagrama Mohilary. With 28 seats, up from 17 in 2020, it was a comprehensive win for Mohilary’s BPF in the 40-member council. The BJP, which fought independently for the first time, had to be content with five seats, down from nine. Its former partner, the United People’s Party Liberal got seven seats, against 12 in 2020.

For Sarma, recognised as BJP’s strongman in Assam, the BTC show did come as a surprise; but as party sources told NewsClick, “he has taken the performance in his stride and it would not affect his political stature; not only that, he is confident of leading BJP-NDA to a comfortable victory in the Assembly elections due in March-April 2026”.  

But, for Sarma, the period from September 2025 may go down in his political career as a tough phase. For the politically weak Opposition, an opportunity has come its way to activate itself and emerge as a force to reckon with before the 2026 Assembly elections.

A few days before the ruling NDA’s defeat in the BTC polls, a potentially more sensitive issue cropped up. On September 19, music icon Zubeen Garg, who had gone to Singapore to participate in a cultural event, died by drowning. The autopsy and death certificate of the Singapore Police mentioned drowning as the reason for Zubeen’s death, which immediately caused an emotional upsurge among his countless admirers in India and even abroad who claimed that “it was a death under mysterious circumstances”.

Although six weeks have passed since the unfortunate incident, its emotive aspect remains intense and has already become a political issue, despite an appeal by the Opposition and other outfits “not to play politics over Zubeen”.

A number of persons in the know and observers this correspondent spoke to suggested that the Chief Minister had acted fast administratively by setting up a special investigation team (SIT) but that was not counting for much, as in recent months, obviously keeping the approaching Assembly elections in view, he has been increasingly toeing the Hindutva line.

Explaining further, they told NewsClick that Zubeen was known for his strong secular credentials that had helped him over the years to nurture a large constituency of secular followers. “Unfortunately, a tragedy was needed to prove that a politics-ridden state like Assam, despite having a strong BJP base, also has a large secular population. That explains why it has become an embarrassing issue for Himanta”, they added.

It is a fact that even the Opposition so far has not talked of any foul play in the episode. This aspect has been mentioned in a subtle way by a civil society organisation (CSO). The thrust of the Opposition demand is on ensuring justice and the culprits responsible for the singer’s death getting the strongest punishment. Yet, when read between the lines, it is obvious that there is a trust deficit between the state government and the Opposition.

According to Lurin Jyoti Gogoi, who heads the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the SIT is controlled by the Chief Minister. The tragedy has happened in a foreign land; several legal and technical issues are involved. Large sections of the people are agitated, therefore, instead of SIT, the inquiry should be assigned either to the CBI  or a team formed and monitored by the Supreme Court. The ultimate option should be a probe by an independent judicial commission, the AJP leader told NewsClick.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) state secretary Suprakash Talukdar wants the business links of the arrested persons be brought within the purview of the inquiry and if deemed necessary, the route  of a letter rogatory should be explored. People should feel confident that the inquiry is on the right track, Talukdar observed.

The Communist Party of India state council secretary Kanak Gogoi said the Chief Minister, finding the evolving situation delicate, was trying hard to divert the people’s attention by mentioning unrelated issues and charging the Opposition of attempts to capitalise on a tragedy.

People who were never Zubeen’s fans were now using his name for their own agenda, Sarma is quoted to have said. Is such a remark expected from a Chief Minister, who is himself pushing BJP’s Hindutva agenda in his own combative style? the CPI leader said.

A senior functionary of the All-India United Democratic Front, Aminul Islam, told this correspondent that Zubeen’s death and the Opposition’s lack of faith in the ongoing probe process was a “new problem” for the Chief Minister who was already under attack for his anti-Muslim policies, failure to resolve the ST (Scheduled Tribe) status issue of six communities and the controversial allotment of land for industries in the Sixth Schedule areas.

The chief advisor to All Assam Students’ Union (AASU), Samujjal Bhattacharya, and AASU’s president Utpal Sarma, told NewsClick: “We are not interested in politics. Zubeen was the voice of the people, he took up people’s causes, he has admirers not only in the North-East, not only in India, but also beyond. We want justice to be meted out and the culprits sentenced with exemplary punishment”.

Guwahati-based CSO Assam Nagarik Sanmilan, which is guided, among others, by Hiren Gohain, who is known for extraordinary scholarship, lamented in a statement that a cultural treasure like him [Zubeen] was … “surrounded by a powerful circle of decadent values and self-serving interests. Only an inquiry conducted by individuals free from government influence will bring all the facts … to light”, the statement made available to NewsClick by senior functionary, Paresh Malakar, reads. Read between the lines, it appears the Assam Nagarik Sanmilan is hinting at something not yet mentioned by others.  

That Assam is possibly headed for a politically controversial spell before the Assembly elections in March-April 2026 is also borne out by the fact that the state also will have to be scheduled by the Election Commission of India for a special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

In addition, there is the National Register of Citizens (NRC) impasse that had surfaced after the publication of the supplementary list on August 31, 2019. The supplementary NRC list indicated eligibility of over three crore people for inclusion in the registry and left out over 19 lakh people. A large number of petitions for review and reverification are pending before the Supreme Court. All these are likely to have a bearing on the Assembly electoral exercise.  

The writer is a senior freelance journalist based in Kolkata.