Manipur: Centre in a Fix on Revoking President’s Rule

Kolkata: Only two weeks are left for Manipur to complete one year of President’s Rule. The most pertinent question at the moment is whether the Centre can ensure Manipur having a popular ministry led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as was the case before promulgation of President’s Rule, or will circumstances compel New Delhi to take recourse to the constitutional provision and extend President’s Rule for the second time.

All that can be said at this juncture is that the Union government finds itself in a fix despite holding several rounds of talks with key stakeholders over the past five weeks. The talks have been held by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Manipur Governor Ajay Bhalla, home secretary Govind Mohan, state chief secretary Puneet Kumar Goel and Home Ministry’s North-East advisor, A K Mishra. The venues were in New Delhi, Guwahati and Manipur. Top officials of the security establishment were present in all the meetings.

At the political level, those involved in the consultations were the BJP national general secretary B L Santhosh (parent organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh] and ex-chief minister N Biren Singh. According to informed quarters, Shah discussed with the ex-CM “conducive situation for a popular ministry” on Friday, January 16, in New Delhi.

In the context of the serious ethnic violence in  Manipur that started on May 3, 2023, the trigger for which was ST (Scheduled Tribe) status for Meiteis and land rights, the interpretation of “conducive situation” has boiled down to persuading the Kuki-Zo hill tribes to give up their demand for a separate administrative set-up in the format of a Union Territory (UT) with legislature for the hill areas as they are just not prepared to accept any more the domination of the Valley-based majority Meitei community, which accounts for 53% of Manipur’s population.

It bears mention that the Kuki-Zo leadership and the ‘associated’ militant outfits are sticking to this position despite the Meitei CSOs’ (civil society organisations), and the ultras’ organisation known to be ‘allied’ with them, are firmly against Manipur’s division.

Perhaps, more relevant is the fact is that a few months ago, the Home Ministry’s North-East advisor Mishra conveyed to the Kuki-Zo leadership that the Union government’s present policy was to not create any more UTs and, therefore, their demand was unacceptable. They were urged to reconsider their demand, reconcile with the Centre’s policy and facilitate a ‘conducive’ situation for Manipur to remain as a state with the status it has been having since its integration with the Union of India.

The Home Ministry’s one key calculation seems to have gone wrong. Ignoring the strong and steady opposition of Valley-based Meteis, it went ahead with the signing on September 4, 2025, of a tripartite Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Kuki outfits, which included militant units and a representative of the widely representative Kuki CSO.

In the then prevailing situation, the Chief Minister’s position had weakened considerably -- politically and administratively-- and it was easy for the ministry to ignore his opposition to the renewal of the SoO arrangement. The ministry sought to justify its action arguing that the renegotiated terms were stiffer than what were in force and include new “dos and don’ts”.

The Home Ministry’s calculation was that reactivation of the SoO deal would soften the stance of the Kukis and their ‘associate’ ultra organisations and they would heed its advice to facilitate the restoration of a popular ministry by giving up their demand for a UT with legislature for the Hill areas.

In the past two weeks, the Home Ministry has reportedly mounted pressure on them to accept its proposals. But, much to its disappointment, the Kukis and allied units have “cleverly” avoided a straightforward commitment. They have partially relented, saying they were open to participating in a popular ministry provided they get a written, unambiguous commitment from the Union government and the state administration that a negotiated political settlement for a UT with legislature, as constitutionally admissible, would be supported within a pre-determined time frame, but certainly within the current Assembly tenure that would terminate in February 2027.

The organisations handling the Kuki-Zo and SoO affairs made this decision in Guwahati on January 13. Which simply means they are only prepared to wait for a year more to realise their demands.

In the 60 member-Legislative Assembly, BJP has 37 members, including seven Kuki MLAs (in all there are 10 Kuki MLAs). The support of the seven Kuki MLAs is a must for BJP to form a ministry. But, then, they are the people who in a memorandum to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his five hour-visit to the state on September 13, 2025, said: “We look forward to a historic shift in our political future … You are fully aware of how our people have been cleansed from the Valley areas … It is an unprecedented ethnic persecution, with state complicity, by the majority community on our minority community. We can now live in peace only as good neighbours, never under the same roof again. We urge you to expedite the dialogue to address our demand for a separate UT with Legislature”.

In this situation, the BJP leadership is finding it difficult to even try “to lure away Kuki MLAs and cause a rift in their ranks”, as it did in Maharashtra (where Eknath Shinde with his supporters disowned the leadership of Uddhav Thackray-led Shiv Sena and helped BJP form a ministry).

For the tribal community MLAs, too, defection is a difficult proposition in view of their September 13, 2025 memorandum to the Prime Minister. It is also worth mentioning that Kuki-Zo Council chairman Henlianthang Thanglet has already gone on record saying if Kuki-Zo MLAS participate in ministry-making efforts (at the behest of BJP leaders) there may be renewed chaos as people’s injured sentiments are yet to heal.

Ideally, President’s Rule should be extended. (The Constitution provides for President’s Rule for a maximum of three years under specified circumstances; six months at a time with Parliament’s approval).

The Centre and the BJP leadership are clearly in a dilemma, Manipur watchers told NewsClick. The option of politically rewarding the Kukis, say, with a deputy chief minister’s post, is also limited as the tribal community people are not habituated in defying their leaders and breaking ranks, they added.

For the record:  Biren Singh had resigned as Chief Minister on February 9, 2025. President’s Rrule was imposed on Manipur on February 13, by placing the Assembly under suspended animation. Before the expiry of six months on August 12 last, the Centre took stock of the ground realities and got parliamentary approval for extension by another six months on August 5. The total spell of one year of President’s Rule, therefore, expires on August 12.

The writer is a senior freelance journalist based in Kolkata.